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Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Zeng

    (Duke University, Center for Study of Aging and Human Development Medical School
    Peking University, National School of Development Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies)

  • Kenneth C. Land

    (Duke University, Department of Sociology and Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute)

  • Danan Gu

    (United Nations, Population Division)

  • Zhenglian Wang

    (Duke University, Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute
    Household and Consumption Forecasting, Inc.)

Abstract

In this chapter presented and discussed the basic concepts and methodology for applying the ProFamy approach in combination with ratio methods (including the constant-share and shift-share ratio methods) to project household and living arrangement projections at the small area level. To assess the accuracy of the combined ratio method and ProFamy approach and present illustrative applications, we calculated projections from 1990 to 2000 and compared projected estimates with census-observed counts in 2000 for sets of randomly selected 25 small counties and 25 small cities which were more or less evenly distributed across the United States. The comparisons show that, in general, most forecast errors are reasonably small – mostly less than or slightly more than 5 %. These results evidently illustrated the utility of the ProFamy approach in combination with ratio methods to project households and living arrangements at the small area level.

Suggested Citation

Handle: RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8906-9_6
DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_6
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