The Fluctuation of International Crude Oil Prices, Uncertainty in Global Economic Policies and Uncertainty in China’s Foreign Trade Policies

Crude oil is a crucial resource for industries, and its price fluctuations directly impact the global economy and international trade, drawing significant international attention. This study, based on the TVP-VAR model, employs impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to dynamically capture changes and deeply explore the relationships between international crude oil prices, global economic policies, and China’s trade policy uncertainty. The research findings indicate that the impact of international crude oil prices on the uncertainty of global economic policies exhibits lagged differences. International crude oil prices negatively influence the uncertainty of China’s trade policies. Changes in global economic policies also affect the uncertainty of China’s trade policies. The impact of China’s trade policy uncertainty on the uncertainty of global economic policies is relatively small and can be essentially ignored. In the context of fluctuations in international oil prices, maintaining energy security should involve comprehensive and systematic policy measures to prevent international oil price fluctuations, safeguard economic stability, promote trade development, and address global challenges.