The Effectiveness of Capital Adequacy Measures in Predicting Bank Distress
Our concern in this paper is two-fold: first to see whether the determinants of bank distress and failure have been any different in the GFC from previous years: second to see whether simple measures of capital adequacy outperform their risk-weighted counterparts as predictors, despite the focus on the later in the Basel framework. This paper examines bank distress within a large quarterly data set of FDIC-insured US banks from 1992 to 2012. We contrast the effects of risk-weighted and non-risk-weighted capital measures for various banking types using two estimation methods (logit and discrete survival time analysis). We predict bank failures and draw inferences about the stability of contributing bank characteristics. Our models incorporate CAMELS indicators that consider the bank-specific variables and macroeconomic conditions. We find that the non-risk-weighted capital measure, the adjusted leverage ratio, explains bank distress and failures best with considerable accuracy. Further, we find that the influence of the characteristics in the two methods differs only slightly. Also the characteristics of banks getting into bank distress are alike over time. That means that the familiar banking characteristics for identifying a distress-prone bank identified fragile banks effectively during the global crisis without new information and are likely to continue to work well in the future. Further, our findings suggest that the more complex a bank is the more effective is the leverage ratio compared to the risk-based capital ratio
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series Chapters in SUERF Studies with number
78-1.||Handle:|| RePEc:erf:erfssc:78-1||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7216
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7298
Web page: http://www.suerf.orgEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: SUERF c/o OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hau, Harald & Langfield, Sam & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2012.
"Bank ratings: what determines their quality?,"
Working Paper Series
1484, European Central Bank.
- Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2012. "Bank ratings-What determines their quality?," Working Papers 12012, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
- Hau, Harald & Langfield, Sam & Marqués Ibañez, David, 2012. "Bank ratings: What determines their quality?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993.
"Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure,"
Financial Industry Studies Working Paper
93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 98/91, International Monetary Fund.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September.
- Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
- Ouarda Merrouche & Enrica Detragiache & Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt, 2010.
"Bank Capital; Lessons From the Financial Crisis,"
IMF Working Papers
10/286, International Monetary Fund.
- Larry D. Wall & María J. Nieto & David Mayes, 2011. "Creating an EU-level supervisor for cross-border banking groups: Issues raised by the U.S. experience with dual banking," Working Paper 2011-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Pettway, Richard H., 1980. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency, and Bank Regulation of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 219-236, March.
- Sonali Das & Amadou N. R. Sy, 2012. "How Risky Are Banks' Risk Weighted Assets? Evidence From the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/36, International Monetary Fund.
- Kraft, Evan & Galac, Tomislav, 2007. "Deposit interest rates, asset risk and bank failure in Croatia," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 312-336, March.
- Gerald A. Hanweck, 1977. "Predicting bank failure," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Marco Arena, 2005.
"Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the Nineties using Bank-Level Data,"
05-19, Bank of Canada.
- Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- DeLisle Worrell, 2004. "Quantitative Assessment of the Financial Sector; An Integrated Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/153, International Monetary Fund.
- Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010.
"Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Working Paper 0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Demyanyk , Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Research Discussion Papers 35/2009, Bank of Finland.
- Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2013.
"The Manipulation of Basel Risk-Weights,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mike Mariathasan & Ouarda Merrouche, 2012. "The Manipulation of Basel Risk-Weights. Evidence from 2007-10," Economics Series Working Papers 621, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Sofiya Avramova & Vanessa Le LeslÃ©, 2012. "Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets," IMF Working Papers 12/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
- James B. Thomson, 1991. "Predicting bank failures in the 1980s," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 9-20.
- Robert B. Avery & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1984. "A dynamic analysis of bank failures," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kao, Chiang & Liu, Shiang-Tai, 2004. "Predicting bank performance with financial forecasts: A case of Taiwan commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2353-2368, October.
- Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
- Betz, Frank & Oprica, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2013.
"Predicting distress in European banks,"
Working Paper Series
1597, European Central Bank.
- Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 101-19, Winter.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Martin CihÃ¡k, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Altman, Edward I., 1977. "Predicting performance in the savings and loan association industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 443-466, October.
- DeYoung, Robert, 2003. " De Novo Bank Exit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 711-28, October.
- Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995.
"Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions,"
1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- Richard S. Barr & Thomas F. Siems, 1994. "Predicting bank failure using DEA to quantify management quality," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 94-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cole, Rebel A. & White, Lawrence J., 2010.
"Déjà vu all over again: The causes of U.S. commercial bank failures this time around,"
24690, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jul 2010.
- Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
- Rebel Cole & Jeffery Gunther, 1998. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 103-117, April.
- Jagtiani, Julapa & Lemieux, Catharine, 2001. "Market discipline prior to bank failure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(2-3), pages 313-324.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erf:erfssc:78-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Bailey)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.