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Monitoring banking sector risks: an applied approach

  • Verónica Vallés
  • Christian Weistroffer

Despite abundant empirical evidence on the merits and limits of early-warning systems for banking crises the day-to-day use of such systems seems to be limited. Reluctance to use such systems may partly be explained by the difficulties to operationalise the proposed models, which are often demanding in terms of data requirements and/ or methodologies. We try to overcome these difficulties and show how an early-warning system can be implemented in practice. Drawing on existing empirical work, we develop a model that provides timely and readily digestible information on macroeconomic developments, e.g. booming credit volumes, excessively rising asset prices or exchange rates, which in the past typically preceded banking crises. Our model is tailored to meet the professional needs of an internationally operating private sector financial institution and can be applied across a wide range of industrial countries and emerging markets.

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  • Hans J. Blommestein & Lex H. Hoogduin & Jolanda J.W. Peeters & Wim W. Boonstra & Verónica Vallés & Christian Weistroffer & Stephan Schulmeister, 2010. "The Quest for Stability: the view of financial institutions," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2010/3 edited by Morten Balling, Jan Marc Berk and Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 00.
  • This item is provided by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum in its series Chapters in SUERF Studies with number 60-4.
    Handle: RePEc:erf:erfssc:60-4
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Crisis financieras en Asia y Latinoamerica: ahora y entonces
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    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," NBER Working Papers 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    13. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
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    15. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
    16. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    18. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. " Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-82, December.
    19. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
    21. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
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