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Forecasting Wholesale Electricity Prices: A Review of Time Series Models

In: FindEcon Monograph Series: Advances in Financial Market Analysis

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  • Rafał Weron

    (Wrocław University of Technology, Poland)

Abstract

An empirical interest of Chapter 5 is focused on short-term forecasting of high frequency wholesale electricity prices. Weron compares the performance of several autoregressive models with seasonal patterns and different assumptions on distribution of error term (GARCH heteroskedastic, heavy-tailed, and semi-parametric). He finds mixed evidence of their forecasting power as far as prediction intervals are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafał Weron, 2009. "Forecasting Wholesale Electricity Prices: A Review of Time Series Models," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński & Grzegorz Szafrański (ed.), FindEcon Monograph Series: Advances in Financial Market Analysis, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 5, pages 71-82, University of Lodz.
  • Handle: RePEc:ann:findec:book:y:2009:n:07:ch:05:mon
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
    2. Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
    3. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2004. "Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations," Papers 2004,32, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    5. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    6. Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
    7. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, revised 15 Apr 2013.
    2. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 744-763.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time series models; Forecasting wholesale electricity prices; Autoregressive models; High frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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