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The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Morris Goldstein

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Over the past five years China has emerged as the world's largest global surplus economy; indeed by 2007-08 the size of its surplus relative to its GDP was of a magnitude unprecedented for a large trading economy. This development is especially surprising since in the first twenty-five years of economic reform China's trade and current account surpluses were quite small by East Asian standards, averaging less than 2 percent of GDP. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the key economic challenges facing the Chinese authorities in light of the still undervalued exchange rate, the large build-up of foreign exchange reserves, and more recently the sharp decline in economic growth. It analyzes the implications of China's exchange-rate policy for the effectiveness of monetary policy, the transition to a commercially oriented banking system, the evolving structure of output and demand, and the risk of protectionism abroad. The policy-options portion of the study takes account of the significant real effective appreciation of the renminbi over the past fifteen months and will contrast the pros and cons of a "stay-the-course" policy with that of a bolder, "three-stage" approach that would seek to maintain recent progress and to reduce even further the undervaluation of the renminbi.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2009. "The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa87, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:piiepa:pa87
    Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 87
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Tao Yang, 2012. "Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 125-146, Fall.
    2. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    3. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ryan Rutkowski, 2015. "Service Sector Reform in China," Policy Briefs PB15-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Morris GOLDSTEIN & Daniel XIE, 2009. "US Credit Crisis and Spillovers to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 204-222.
    6. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    7. James Xiaohe Zhang, 2011. "RMB Appreciation or Fiscal Stimulus, and their Policy Implications," Chapters,in: China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Julian GRUIN, 2013. "Asset or Liability? The Role of the Financial System in the Political Economy of China’s Rebalancing," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 42(4), pages 73-104.
    9. Yoonbai Kim & Gil Kim, 2012. "The Renminbi Debate: A Review of Issues and Search for Resolution," Chapters,in: Asian Responses to the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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