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Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000

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  • Simon Wren-Lewis
  • Rebecca Driver

Abstract

Countries that entered the European Monetary Union had to do so at exchange rates that are close to equilibrium levels. So when are exchange rates at equilibrium levels? Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000 discusses the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) method and estimates FEERS for the G7 countries for 1995 and 2000. There have been large swings in all G7 currencies in the last five years, and in these circumstances, the markets and policymakers need better guides to the sustainable levels of these currencies.The authors estimate equilibrium real exchange rates using a partial-equilibrium model based on econometric trade equations, assumptions of trend output, and estimates of the medium-run current account. They emphasize that the FEER is a medium-run construct and contrast it with the purchasing price parity (PPP) method of determining rates. The authors discuss the links between the FEER and fiscal policy and the extent to which the FEER is a normative concept. They conclude with sensitivity analysis for changes in current account and trend GDP assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Wren-Lewis & Rebecca Driver, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa54, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:piiepa:pa54 Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 54
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The renminbi equilibrium exchange rate: an agnostic view," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 2001. "The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 279-315, March.
    4. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    5. Abhijit Das & Rashmi Banga & Dinesh Kumar, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis : Impact and Restructuring of the Services Sector in India," Trade Working Papers 23225, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
    7. Cuong Le Van & Cécile Couharde & Thai Bao Luong, 2006. "The Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in a Simple General Equilibrium Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 506-517, August.
    8. Elisabeth Beusch & Barbara Döbeli & Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yeşin, 2017. "Merchanting and Current Account Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 140-167, January.
    9. George Kyriacou & Maria Papageorghiou, 2010. "Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Cyprus Pound at the time of Euro Adoption," Working Papers 2010-6, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    10. Bernd Schnatz, 2011. "Global Imbalances And The Pretence Of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 604-615, December.
    11. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)," Macroeconomics 0403006, EconWPA, revised 22 Apr 2004.
    13. Kamath, Kishore & Paul, Varun, 2011. "Understanding recent developments in UK external trade," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(4), pages 294-304.
    14. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
    15. Carton, Benjamin & Hervé, Karine, 2012. "Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1214.
    16. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, June.
    17. Sónia Costa, 2005. "A survey of literature on the equilibrium real exchange rate. An application to the euro exchange rate," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Erdoğan, Eren & Aras, Osman Nuri & Öztürk, Mustafa, 2012. "Does Overvalued Turkish Lira Affect Turkey's Foreign Trade Competitiveness?," MPRA Paper 81857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2005. "Exchange rate policy and foreign exchange interventions in Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 255-64 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    21. Jovanovic, Branimir, 2007. "Calculating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Macedonian Denar," MPRA Paper 43161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.

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