IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling Inflation In India: The Role Of Money

  • N. KUNDAN KISHOR

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Bolton Hall 806, WI-53201, USA)

This paper studies the role of the real money gap — the deviation of real money balance from its long-run equilibrium level — for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that the real money gap is a significant predictor of inflation in India. Our results show that this variable is a better predictor of future inflation at quarterly horizon than the deviation of broad money growth from its target for the whole sample period. We also document a break in the overall predictability of inflation in the last quarter of 1995. We find that, except for the real money gap, the forecasting power of other predictors under study has declined considerably after 1995.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=pdf&id=pii:S0217590812500282
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=html&id=pii:S0217590812500282
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal The Singapore Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 57 (2012)
Issue (Month): 04 ()
Pages: 1250028-1-1250028-19

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:04:p:1250028-1-1250028-19
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," Working Paper Series rwp04-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  3. Tim Callen & Dongkoo Chang, 1999. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India," IMF Working Papers 99/119, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide any Rationale for Monetary Targeting," Papers 671, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
  7. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
  8. Balakrishnan, Pulapre, 1991. "Industrial price behaviour in India : An 'error-correction' model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 309-326, November.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. D. M. Nachane & R. Lakshmi, 2002. "Dynamics of inflation in India - a P-Star approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 101-110.
  11. Subramanian S. Sriram, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 3.
  12. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
  15. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  16. Chand, Sheetal K., 1996. "Fiscal and other determinants of the Indian inflation rate," Working Papers 96/7, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  17. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:04:p:1250028-1-1250028-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.