Forward And Future Implied Volatility
We address the problem of defining and calculating forward volatility implied by option prices when the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility process. We examine alternative notions of forward implied volatility and the information required to extract these measures from the prices of European options at fixed maturities. We then specialize to the SABR model and show how the asymptotic expansion of the bivariate transition density in Wu (forthcoming) allows calibration of the SABR model with piecewise constant parameters and calculation of forward volatility. We then investigate empirically whether current option prices at multiple maturities contain useful information in predicting future option prices and future implied volatility. We undertake this investigation using data on options on the euro-dollar, sterling-dollar, and dollar-yen exchange rates. We find that prices across maturities do indeed have predictive value. Moreover, we find that model-based forward volatility extracts this predicative information better than a standard "model-free" measure of forward volatility and better than spot implied volatility. The enhancement to out-of-sample forecasting accuracy gained from model-based forward volatility is greatest at longer forecasting horizons.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 03 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml |
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:14:y:2011:i:03:p:407-432. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.