Technical Analysis Based On Price-Volume Signals And The Power Of Trading Breaks
We propose a novel stock market model and investigate the effectiveness of trading breaks. Our nonlinear model consists of two types of traders: while fundamentalists expect prices to return towards their intrinsic values, chartists extrapolate past price movements into the future. Moreover, chartists condition their orders on past trading volume. The model is able to replicate several stylized facts of stock markets such as fat tails and volatility clustering. Using the model as an artificial stock market laboratory we find that trading breaks have the power to reduce volatility and — if fundamentals do not move too strongly — also mispricing.
Volume (Year): 09 (2006)
Issue (Month): 02 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml|
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
- Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000.
"Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1770, 08.
- Andrew Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 1999. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 402, Society for Computational Economics.
- Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000.
"The price dynamics of common trading strategies,"
- Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Frank Westerhoff & Cristian Wieland, .
"Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods,"
Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003
22, Society for Computational Economics.
- Wieland, Cristian & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 117-132, September.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
- Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
- Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999.
"The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
" Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Lux, T., .
"The Limiting Extremal Behaviour of Speculative Returns: An Analysis of Intra-Daily Data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange,"
Discussion Paper Serie B
436, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Thomas Lux, 2001. "The limiting extremal behaviour of speculative returns: an analysis of intra-daily data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-315.
- C. H. Hommes, 2001.
"Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
- Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Gudrun Ehrenstein, 2002. "Cont-Bouchaud percolation model including Tobin tax," Papers cond-mat/0205320, arXiv.org.
- Virginia Grace France & Laura Kodres & James T. Moser, 1994. "A review of regulatory mechanisms to control the volatility of prices," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 15-28.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:09:y:2006:i:02:p:227-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.