Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy
In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities on the European power markets. We use the partial equilibrium model EMELIE-ESY with focus on electricity markets in order to determine how private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and operation over the horizon 2010 to 2050. For the year 2050, the model projects a minor increase of power consumption of 10% under current climate policy, and a balanced pathway for consumption under ambitious climate policy compared to 2010 levels. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models that predict strong consumption increases of 44% to 48% by 2050 and claim competitiveness of nuclear power and CCS options. Under ambitious climate policy, our findings correspond with major increases of wholesale electricity market prices and comparatively less pronounced emission price increases, which trigger no investments into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a strongly diminishing share of nuclear energy.
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Volume (Year): 04 (2013)
Issue (Month): su ()
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- Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2009.
"Refunding ETS-Proceeds to Spur the Diffusion of Renewable Energies: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Oligopolistic Electricity Market Model EMELIE,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
951, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Refunding ETS proceeds to spur the diffusion of renewable energies: An analysis based on the dynamic oligopolistic electricity market model EMELIE," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-41, January.
- Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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