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Fractal Markets Hypothesis And The Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons And Liquidity

  • LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 4, 182 08, Prague, Czech Republic)

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

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Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.

Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): 06 ()
Pages: 1250065-1-1250065-13

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Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:06:p:1250065-1-1250065-13
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  3. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Multifractal Height Cross-Correlation Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Long-Range Cross-Correlations," Papers 1201.3473, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
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  7. Marco Corazza & A. G. Malliaris, 2002. "Multi-Fractality in Foreign Currency Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 65-98, June.
  8. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
  9. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Canning, D & Gopikrishnan, P & Lee, Y & Liu, Y, 1999. "Econophysics: Can physicists contribute to the science of economics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 156-169.
  10. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
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