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Dollarization of Deposits in the Short and Long Run: Evidence from CESE Countries

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  • Branko Urošević Author-Email: urosevic@ekof.bg.ac.rs

    (National Bank of Serbia; University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Serbia; CESifo Research Network, Munich, Germany)

  • Ivana Rajković Author-Email: ivana.rajkovic@nbs.rs

    (Corresponding author National Bank of Serbiа, Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the drivers of permanent and transitory deposit dollarization for a sample of CESE countries using panel cointegration techniques. The results suggest that a positive cointegration relationship exists between permanent dollarization and Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) share. This provides an additional empirical validation of the MVP method as the standard tool for analyzing financial dollarization. In the long-run, agents make savings decisions based on the relative volatilities of inflation and nominal depreciation rates and do not take into account the interest rate spread. Somewhat different factors affect dollarization in the short rather than in the long-run. Namely, apart from MVP share, transitory deposit dollarization is driven, also, by the real interest rate spread. Our results suggest that affecting dollarization through changes in the interest rate spread may have a short-term impact. In the long-run, however, for de-dollarization it is critical to reduce the volatility of inflation compared to the volatility of exchange rate depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Branko Urošević Author-Email: urosevic@ekof.bg.ac.rs & Ivana Rajković Author-Email: ivana.rajkovic@nbs.rs, 2017. "Dollarization of Deposits in the Short and Long Run: Evidence from CESE Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(1), pages 31-44, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:1:p:31-44
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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2017_1/03%20Branko%20Urosevic%20and%20Ivana%20Rajkovic.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winkelried, Diego & Castillo, Paul, 2010. "Dollarization persistence and individual heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1596-1618, December.
    2. Basso, Henrique S. & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Jurgilas, Marius, 2011. "Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 794-806, April.
    3. Nicolo, Gianni De & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2005. "Dollarization of bank deposits: Causes and consequences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1697-1727, July.
    4. Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial Dollarization Equilibria; A Framework for Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/186, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent and transitory dollarization; Transition economies;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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