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Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece

  • Antoniou Antonis

    ()

    (State General Archives of Greece, Greece)

  • Katrakilidis Constantinos

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Tsaliki Persefoni

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece)

With data of over a century, 1833-1938, this paper attempts, for the first time, to analyze the causal relationship between income and government spending in the Greek economy for such a long period; that is, to gain some insight into Wagner and Keynesian Hypotheses. The time period of the analysis represents a period of growth, industrialization and modernization of the economy, conditions which are conducive to Wagner’s Law but also to the Keynesian Hypothesis. The empirical analysis resorts to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration method and tests for the presence of possible structural breaks. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant long run causal effect running from economic performance towards the public size giving support to Wagner’s Law in Greece, whereas for the Keynesian hypothesis some doubts arise for specific time sub-periods.

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Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

Volume (Year): 60 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 457-472

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Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:60:y:2013:i:4:p:457-472
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  1. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
  2. Philip Arestis, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Is Still an Effective Instrument of Macroeconomic Policy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 143-156, June.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
  6. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan & Hooi-Yean Lee, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-1291.
  7. Ganti, Subrahmanyam & Kolluri, Bharat R, 1979. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditures: Some Efficient Results for the United States," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 34(2), pages 225-33.
  8. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-15.
  9. John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-152, May.
  10. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
  11. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
  12. Ricardo Faria, Joao & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel, 2003. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Implications for growth and the PPP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 241-253, June.
  13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  14. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
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