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Nonlinearity and Fractional Integration in the US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate

  • Burcu Kıran

    ()

    (Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Turkey)

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    This paper examines the nonlinear behavior and the fractional integration property of the US dollar/euro exchange rate over the period fromJanuary 1999 to August 2010 by extending the procedure of Peter M. Robinson (1994) to the case of nonlinearity. First, using the approach developed by Mehmet Caner and Bruce E. Hansen (2001), we investigate the possible presence of nonlinearity in the series through the estimation of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. After finding nonlinearity, we also allow for disturbances to be fractionally integrated based on the different versions of Robinson (1994) tests. The findings show that the US dollar/euro exchange rate follows a stationary process with a weak evidence for long memory.

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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2012_3/05%20Burcu%20Kiran.pdf
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    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 325-334

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:3:p:325-334
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

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    1. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 361, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J. & O'Brien, Edward J., 2007. "Modelling Ireland’s exchange rates: from EMS to EMU," Working Paper Series 0823, European Central Bank.
    3. L A Gil-Alana & Peter M. Robinson, 2000. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    6. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring Long Memory and Nonlinearity in Irish Real Exchange Rates using Tests based on Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 200901, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    11. Hamilton, James D., 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt68s8157x, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    12. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
    13. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
    15. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models," Working Papers 528, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. L A Gil-Alaña & Peter M Robinson, 2000. "Testing of Seasonal Fractional Integration in UK and Japanese Consumption and Income," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/402, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    17. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
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