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Robust Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

  • Olga Kuznetsova

    ()

    (Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

A great number of recent researches have found importance of country specific shocks for optimal monetary policy construction in the context of a currency union. This however has been almost completely overlooked by the analysis of optimal monetary policy under model uncertainty. The main purpose of our work is to fill this gap. By using a model of a two-country currency union with sticky prices, we have derived robust monetary policy that works reasonably well even in the worst case of model perturbations. We find some anti-attenuation effect of uncertainty, and show that the central bank’s optimal reaction to economic shocks becomes more aggressive with an increase in the extent of misspecification.

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Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 185-199

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Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:2:p:185-199
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

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  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," International Finance Discussion Papers 749, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. Tommaso Monacelli & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union," Working Papers 300, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Andrea Ferrero, 2005. "Fiscal and Monetary Rules for a Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0508020, EconWPA.
  5. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty In A Simple Microfounded Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 257-268, April.
  6. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
  7. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2002. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union," Working Paper Series 0166, European Central Bank.
  8. Dennis, Richard, 2007. "Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 31-55, February.
  9. Alexei Onatski, 2000. "Minimax Analysis of Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1818, Econometric Society.
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  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
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  15. De Grauwe, Paul & Senegas, Marc-Alexandre, 2006. "Monetary policy design and transmission asymmetry in EMU: Does uncertainty matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 787-808, December.
  16. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J. & Turmuhambetova, Gauhar & Williams, Noah, 2006. "Robust control and model misspecification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 45-90, May.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  19. Herve Le Bihan & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2002. "Implications of parameter uncertainty for monetary policy in a simple Euro area model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 553-556.
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  21. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  22. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
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