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Methodological Basis for Macroeconomic Projections in Countries Exposed to Pressures and Shocks: Example of Serbia

Author

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  • Miladin Kovačević

    () (Economic Institute, “Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends“, Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Stojan Stamenković

    () (Economic Institute, “Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends“, Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract

The presented Macroeconomic Projections Model is based on a “pre-established” model for projecting the balance of payment linked with the balance of gross domestic product use. Such a model is the “authentic! one, designed by authors, i.e. based on a no theoretical concept of modelling the macroeconomic equilibrium, but it has a “heuristic” (experiential) character. The idea for designing such a model comes from the fact that theoretical models involve numerous equations that are to be solved, with numerous parameters to be estimated, including also the problem of linearity (smoothness) of longterm analytical curves, as well as the problem of an undeveloped market, a closed economy or an economy that is fragile in its relations with foreign countries, the problem of “turning” points, different internal or external shocks, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Miladin Kovačević & Stojan Stamenković, 2010. "Methodological Basis for Macroeconomic Projections in Countries Exposed to Pressures and Shocks: Example of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 225-243, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:225-243
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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2010_2/06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper 2009/15, Norges Bank.
    2. repec:nsr:niesrd:337 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic projections; GDP deflators; Modelling; Sustainability.;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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