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Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-curve Effect


  • Pavle Petrović

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Mirjana Gligorić

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia)


This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen’s and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavle Petrović & Mirjana Gligorić, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-curve Effect," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(1), pages 23-41, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:57:y:2010:i:1:p:23-41

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2005. "Import Demand Function: Some Evidence from Madagascar and Mauritius," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 411-434, September.
    3. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-539, August.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    5. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-179, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai Ph.D., 2015. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 27(1), pages 17-36, April.
    3. Kurtovic, Safet & Halili, Blerim & Maxhuni, Nehat, 2016. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity: B&H versus its seven trade partners," MPRA Paper 72297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    5. repec:psl:pslqrr:2017:24 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    7. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana
      [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]
      ," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hussain, M. Ershad & Haque, Mahfuzul, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 231-240.
    9. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai Ph.D., 2015. "Devaluation and Testing the J-curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Working Paper 27/2015, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    10. Jana ŠIMÁKOVÁ, 2014. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance of Slovakia," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(3).

    More about this item


    Exchange rate and trade balance; J-curve; Cointegration; Autoregressive distributed lag approach.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General


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