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Modelling Seasonality An Extension of the HEGY Approach in the Presence of Two Structural Breaks


  • Ozlem Tasseven

    () (Okan University, banking and Finance Department, Istanbul Turkey)


In this paper the HEGY testing procedure (Hylleberg et al. 1990) of analyzing seasonal unit roots is tried to be re-examined by allowing for seasonal mean shifts with exogenous break points. Using some Monte Carlo experiments the distribution of the HEGY and the extended HEGY tests for seasonal unit roots subject to mean shifts and the small sample behavior of the test statistics have been investigated. Based on an empirical analysis upon the conventional money demand relationships in the Turkish economy, our results indicate that seasonal unit roots appear for the GDP deflator, real M2 and the expected inflation variables while seasonal unit roots at annual frequency seem to be disappear for the real M1 balances when the possible structural changes in one or more seasons at 1994 and 2001 crisis years have been taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozlem Tasseven, 2008. "Modelling Seasonality An Extension of the HEGY Approach in the Presence of Two Structural Breaks," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(4), pages 465-484, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:465-484

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 872-900, December.
    2. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269, June.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    5. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    6. Ghiath Shabsigh & Ilker Domaç, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth; Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia," IMF Working Papers 99/40, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, June.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Tunisia’s Experience with Real Exchange Rate Targeting and the Transition to a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 02/190, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
    2. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.

    More about this item


    HEGY Seasonal unit root test; Deterministic seasonality; Structural breaks; Money demand; Turkish economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money


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