Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in A Young Democracy Setting
This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy- Russia-finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides an explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using regional monthly panel data, we find that (1) the budget cycle is sizable and short-lived; public spending shifts toward direct monetary transfers to voters; (2) the magnitude of the cycle decreases with democracy, government transparency, media freedom, voter awareness, and over time; and (3) preelectoral manipulation increases incumbents' chances for reelection. The short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used in previous studies. © 2004 MIT Press
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 119 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00335533|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1997. "Soft budget constraints and credit crunches in financial transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 807-817, April.
- Eric Maskin & Chenggang Xu, 2001.
"Soft budget constraint theories: From centralization to the market,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Maskin, Eric & Xu, Cheng-Gang, 2001. "Soft Budget Constraint Theories: From Centralization to the Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999.
"Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 595-617, December.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth & Alessandro Asquisti, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," LICOS Discussion Papers 7999, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti,Alessandro, 1998. "Grime And Punishment: Job Insecurity And Wage Arrears in The Russian Federation," Economics Technical Papers 986, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- A Aquisti & H Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth, 1998. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0403, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," CERT Discussion Papers 9907, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1998. "Grime and punishment: job insecurity and wage arrears in the Russian Federation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- John P. Bonin & Yiping Huang, 2001.
"Dealing with the Bad Loans of the Chinese Banks,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
357, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Sophie Brana & Mathilde Maurel, 2001.
"Démonétisation en Russie : un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l’emploi,"
Sciences Po publications
info:hdl:2441/712, Sciences Po.
- Sophie Brana & Mathilde Maurel, 2001. "Démonétisation en Russie. Un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l'emploi," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(4), pages 841-859.
- Mathilde Maurel & Sophie Brana, 2001. "Démonétisation en Russie. Un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l'emploi," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(4), pages 841-859.
- Antje Hildebrandt, 2002. "Too many to fail? Inter-enterprise arrears in transition economies," Development and Comp Systems 0212001, EconWPA.
- Matousek, R., 1995. "Non Performing Loans in the Czech Republic and the Role of the Consolidation Bank: A Financial Analysis," Discussion Papers 95-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Perotti, E. C., 1998. "Inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1703-1725, November.
- Allen N. Berger, 1994.
"The relationship between capital and earnings in banking,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
94-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 432-56, May.
- Allen Berger, 1994. "The Relationship Between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 94-17, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1992. "An Evaluation of the Treasury Plan for Banking Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 133-153, Winter.
- J. P. Bonin & M. E. Schaffer, 1995.
"Banks, firms, bad debts and bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
20764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers dp0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- John Bonin & Bozena Leven, 2001. "Can State-owned Banks Promote Enterprise Restructuring? Evidence from One Polish Bank's Experience," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 431-443.
- Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. " Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April.
- Park, Sangkyun & Peristiani, Stavros, 1998. "Market Discipline by Thrift Depositors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 347-64, August.
- Aleh Tsyvinski & Martin Petri & GÃ¼nther Taube, 2002. "Energy Sector Quasi-Fiscal Activities in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 02/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. " Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-30, January.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," IZA Discussion Papers 65, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Kornai, Janos, 2001. "Hardening the budget constraint: The experience of the post-socialist countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1573-1599, October.
- Ellis, David M. & Flannery, Mark J., 1992. "Does the debt market assess large banks, risk? : Time series evidence from money center CDs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-502, December.
- Eric V. Clifton & Mohsin S. Khan, 1993. "Interenterprise Arrears in Transforming Economies: The Case of Romania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 680-696, September.
- Schaffer, Mark E., 1998. "Do Firms in Transition Economies Have Soft Budget Constraints? A Reconsideration of Concepts and Evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 80-103, March.
- Alberto M. Ramos, 1998. "Government Expenditure Arrears: Securitization and Other Solutions," IMF Working Papers 98/70, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:4:p:1301-1338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.