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The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff

We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the IMF official classification (which we show to be only a little better than random); it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification. Our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. Indeed, the breakup of Bretton Woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed. © 2004 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 119 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-48

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:1:p:1-48
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  1. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Glick, R., 2000. "Fixed or Floating: Is It Still Possible to Manage in the Middle?," Papers pb00-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  3. Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 03/160, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2001. "Why is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 411, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  7. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  8. Peter Wickham, 2002. "Do “Flexible†Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?," IMF Working Papers 02/82, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
  12. Marion, Nancy P, 1994. "Dual Exchange Rates in Europe and Latin America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 213-45, May.
  13. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  15. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regime Transitions," IMF Working Papers 00/134, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
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