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The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment

  • Blanchard, Olivier
  • Rhee, Changyong
  • Summers, Lawrence

Should managers, when taking investment decisions, follow the signals given by the stock market even when those do not coincide with their own assessment of fundamentals? Do they? In this paper, the authors review theoretical arguments and examine the empirical evidence. First, they look at the relation between investment, market valuation, and proxies for fundamentals over the last ninety years. Second, the authors look at the behavior of investment during the episodes associated with the crashes of 1929 and 1987. The autho rs find a limited role of market valuation, given fundamentals. Copyright 1993, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 108 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 115-36

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:1:p:115-36
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  1. Galeotti, Marzio & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1994. "Stock Market Volatility and Investment: Do Only Fundamentals Matter?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(242), pages 147-65, May.
  2. Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
  3. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  5. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  6. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
  7. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
  8. Jorgenson, Dale W & Yun, Kun-Young, 1986. " Tax Policy and Capital Allocation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 355-77.
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