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Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium

  • Matsuyama, Kiminori

This paper asks whether adjustment processes over real time help to "select" the long-run outcome in a model of industrialization, where multiple stationary states exist because of increasing returns in the manufacturing sector. "History" alone cannot, in general, determine where the economy will end up. Self-fulfilling expectations often make the escape from the state of preindustrialization (the takeoff) possible. The global bifurcation technique is used to determine when an underdevelopment trap exists and when a takeoff path exists. The role of government policy and agricultural productivity in industrialization are then considered. Copyright 1991, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 106 (1991)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 617-50

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:2:p:617-50
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  1. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "Increasing returns, imperfect markets, and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 325-365 Elsevier.
  2. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May.
  3. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
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  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1988. "Multiple Expectational Equilibria under Monopolistic Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 695-713, November.
  8. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-68, September.
  9. Brock, W A & Dechert, W D, 1985. "Dynamic Ramsey Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 569-91, October.
  10. Field, Alexander James, 1978. "Sectoral shift in antebellum Massachusetts: A reconsideration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 146-171, April.
  11. Kehoe, Timothy J, 1985. "Multiplicity of Equilibria and Comparative Statics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 119-47, February.
  12. Dechert, W. Davis & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1983. "A complete characterization of optimal growth paths in an aggregated model with a non-concave production function," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 332-354, December.
  13. Krugman, Paul, 1981. "Trade, accumulation, and uneven development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-161, April.
  14. Wright, Gavin, 1979. "Cheap Labor and Southern Textiles before 1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 655-680, September.
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