Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States
There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Altho ugh there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvio us, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability usi ng a U.S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimat e how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model. Copyright 1988, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Volume (Year): 103 (1988)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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