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The quality of fiscal adjustment: an empirical analysis of Turkey


  • N. Nergiz Dincer
  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir


Turkey is a country with high inflation and debt problems. Policy-makers try to use tight fiscal policy based on high primary surplus to stabilize the economy. This study analyzes the composition of the budget, an indicator for the quality of fiscal policy and the persistence of the adjustments using ARFIMA methodology using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2005:11. Our results suggest that fiscal policy implemented in Turkey does not have a high quality due to the composition of expenditures. Although government is successful in cutting personnel expenditures, the results suggest that it did not implement these cuts with persistence. Moreover, decreasing transfer expenditures and a high share in expenditures were not pursued with persistence either. On the other hand, decreasing investment after 2000 both decreases the quality of the fiscal policy and has a future growth cost.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Nergiz Dincer & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2009. "The quality of fiscal adjustment: an empirical analysis of Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:111-126 DOI: 10.1080/17487870902872896

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Juan F. Castro & Gustavo Yamada, 2006. "Evaluación de estrategias de desarrollo para alcanzar los objetivos del milenio en América Latina," Working Papers 06-11, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Caputo, 2014. "The role of memory in modeling social and economic cycles of extreme events," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 11, pages 245-259 Edward Elgar Publishing.


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