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Supply Response in an Uncertain Market: Assessing Future Implications for Activity Levels in the Irish Housing Sector

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  • Diarmaid Addison-Smyth
  • Kieran McQuinn
  • Gerard O'Reilly

Abstract

After ten years of unprecedented increases in both prices and activity levels, the Irish housing market has entered a period of significant decline. In 2007, Irish house prices, for the first time in recent history, experienced negative growth rates. Similarly, rates of house building began to slow appreciably and leading indicators within the housing sector suggest that house building will contract significantly in the years ahead to levels well below the record level of construction in 2006. The sustained increase in housing construction prompted by the rapid increase in prices resulted in the Irish construction sector assuming a position of considerable importance within the overall economy. A significant slowdown in housing activity could have far-reaching domestic consequences. In this paper, we use a recently developed model of the housing sector to gauge what the likely future supply levels of housing will be in response to the slowdown in demand-side pressures.

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  • Diarmaid Addison-Smyth & Kieran McQuinn & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "Supply Response in an Uncertain Market: Assessing Future Implications for Activity Levels in the Irish Housing Sector," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 259-283.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:259-283 DOI: 10.1080/14616710903138767
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    Cited by:

    1. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, April.
    2. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
    3. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. McQuinn, Kieran & Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid, 2015. "Assessing the Sustainable Nature of Housing-Related Taxation Receipts: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP503, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Goggin, Jean & Holton, Sarah & Kelly, Jane & Lydon, Reamonn & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "The financial crisis and the pricing of interest rates in the Irish mortgage market: 2003-2011," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters,in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    Structural; demand; forecast; scenario;

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