IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market


  • Simon Stevenson
  • James Young


This paper compares the performance of three alternative models in forecasting housing supply in the Irish Republic. The results highlight key behavioural issues in the dynamics of housing supply that the OLS and VAR models fail to adequately capture due to the inclusion of fundamental variables in their specification. The behaviour of developers in delaying projects means that housing supply can often respond slowly to demand shocks. For this reason the OLS and VAR models substantially over-estimate housing supply during the period 1998-2001. In comparison the simple ARIMA model provides generally accurate forecasts of supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2007. "Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1-17 DOI: 10.1080/14616710601132518

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    2. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    3. Irene de Greef & Ralph de Haas, 2002. "Housing Prices, Bank Lending, and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0209010, EconWPA.
    4. Martins, Nuno C. & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2006. "The impact of mortgage interest-rate subsidies on household borrowing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1601-1623, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.