IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Econometric Demand-Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing


  • Bharat Barot


A housing market model for Sweden has been estimated on semi-annual data for 1970-97 by separately modelling the demand and the supply sides, specified in error correction form. On the demand side in the short run house prices adjust to the changes in the real after-tax long interest rate, financial wealth, the employment rate, rents and, finally, population. There is an underlying long-run relationship between real house prices and the following ratios: debt to income, debt to financial wealth, private housing stock to income, the stock of rental housing (flats) to the private housing stock, and the real aftertax long interest rate. The supply side, based on Tobin's q -index, the short interest rate and stock market returns, generates the investment flow which determines the evolution in stock. The results indicate that even in a turbulent period, Swedish house prices and housing investment are tracked quite well with this specification. The importance of the simulations and their usefulness to Swedish policy-makers is discussed. According to our model, many factors were instrumental in producing the house price boom of the late 1980s. Initial debt levels were low as were real house prices, giving scope for rises in both, and these became more important as a result of financial liberalization, though partly offset by higher real interest rates. We also discuss the controversy over the causes of the 1991-93 recession in the context of the 1991 tax reform. Tests of model adequacy indicate that the housing price and Tobin's q housing investment models are stable and robust and satisfy intuitive theoretical prerequisites.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demand-Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:1:y:2001:i:3:p:417-444 DOI: 10.1080/14616710110091570

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Agell, J. & Berg, L. & Edin, P.A., 1995. "Tax Reform, Consumption and Asset Structure," Papers 16, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Heiborn, M., 1994. "Demographic Factors and the Demand for Housing," Papers 1994-30, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    4. Berg, Lennart & Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. " Housing and Financial Wealth, Financial Deregulation and Consumption--The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 421-439, September.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    7. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    10. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    11. Raymond Tse & C. W. Ho & S. Ganesan, 1999. "Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 625-633.
    12. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198.
    13. Agell, Jonas & Englund, Peter & Sodersten, Jan, 1996. "Tax Reform of the Century -- the Swedish Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 643-664, December.
    14. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    15. Barot, Bharat & Takala, Kari, 1998. "House prices and inflation : a cointegration analysis for Finland and Sweden," Research Discussion Papers 12/1998, Bank of Finland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Barot, Bharat, 2002. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Working Papers 79, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, "undated". "Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals," EcoMod2010 259600061, EcoMod.
    3. Rima Turk, 2015. "Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 15/276, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, EconWPA.
    5. Yang, Zan & Wang, S.T., 2012. "Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 336-346.
    6. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Papers 80, National Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item


    House prices; Error Correction; Steady State; Tobin'S; Simultaneous Model;

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intjhp:v:1:y:2001:i:3:p:417-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.