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Real estate market risk in bank stock returns: evidence for 15 European countries

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  • António Miguel Martins
  • Ana Paula Serra
  • Francisco Vitorino Martins

Abstract

In countries with highly-developed financial systems bank portfolios have high exposure, directly or indirectly, to the real estate sector. Changes in the value of real estate can have a potentially significant impact on the default risk of banks and on their profitability as a result of high exposure to the real estate sector. This is especially critical during real estate crises, when bank losses tend to increase dramatically, placing the entire financial system at risk of collapse, as it was the case of the recent international subprime crisis. This article studies the sensitivity of bank stock returns to real estate returns in 15 European countries. The results indicate that bank stocks are sensitive to real estate market conditions. There is a positive relation between bank stock returns and real estate returns after controlling for general market conditions and interest rates changes.

Suggested Citation

  • António Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra & Francisco Vitorino Martins, 2016. "Real estate market risk in bank stock returns: evidence for 15 European countries," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-155, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ijspmg:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:142-155
    DOI: 10.3846/1648715X.2015.1120790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Fidanza & Ottorino Morresi, 2015. "Does the Fama-Franch three-factor model work in the financial industry? Evidence from European bank stocks," Working Papers 47-2015, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised May 2015.
    2. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    3. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp, 2014. "Bank risk factors and changing risk exposures: Capital market evidence before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 151-166.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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