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Time-Varying NAIRU and Some of Its Determinants—A Semi-Structural Approach: Evidence from Eastern European Economies

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  • Pošta
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    The results of structural estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve are used to calibrate a semistructural state-space model that is then used to estimate a time-varying NAIRU. In the first version, the NAIRU is estimated as a simple autoregressive process. In the second, the state equation is enriched by two exogenous variables: long-term unemployment rate and labor costs. The results show that very long-term unemployment plays a statistically significant role in the explanation of the NAIRU, but even so, the majority of the fluctuations of the estimated NAIRU are explained by the autoregressive process itself.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00128775.2015.1034058
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Eastern European Economics.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2015)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 149-165

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:2:p:149-165
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1034058
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