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A nonparametric cointegration analysis of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

  • Haitham A. Al-Zoubi
  • Dana A. Al-Zoubi
  • Aktham I. Maghyereh

The nonparametric cointegration method of Breitung (2002) is applied to test for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) using monthly data of the US dollar vis-à-vis two major currencies viz. the British pound and the Canadian dollar over the period spanned from 1973 to 2002. The results of the nonparametric test are compared with the parametric test suggested by Johansen (1988 and 1992) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). Robust cointegration is found between the spot and the forward rates but the FRUH is rejected. The result is robust whether the trend is included in the model or not.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 223-227

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:2:y:2006:i:4:p:223-227
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eric Zivot, 1998. "Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions," Econometrics 9812001, EconWPA.
  4. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
  5. Barnhart, Scott W. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 1991. "Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co-Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 245-267, June.
  6. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  10. Luintel, K. B. & Paudyal, K., 1998. "Common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-297, April.
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