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Long memory properties of real interest rates for 16 countries


  • Jeremy Couchman
  • Rukmani Gounder
  • Jen-Je Su


This study examines the long-run dynamics of ex post and ex ante real interest rates for 16 countries. Three real interest rates -- the realized (ex post) rate and two ex ante rates -- are examined for each of the 16 countries. The magnitude of persistence is estimated using the ARFIMA model. The key empirical results suggest that for the majority of the 16 countries, the long-memory parameters of the three real rates lie between zero and one, and the parameters tend to be considerably smaller for the ex post real rate compared with both of the two ex ante rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Couchman & Rukmani Gounder & Jen-Je Su, 2006. "Long memory properties of real interest rates for 16 countries," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 25-30, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:2:y:2006:i:1:p:25-30

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-253, March.
    2. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
    3. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
    5. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    6. J. Z. Easaw & S. M. Heravi & J. C. K. Ash & D. J. Smyth, 2002. "Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 631-643.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    3. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:3:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:71-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. da Silva, Cleomar Gomes & Leme, Maria Carolina da Silva, 2011. "An Analysis of the Degrees of Persistence of Inflation, Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rate in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "Testing the Fisher Hypothesis in the G-7 Countries Using I(d) Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:5:p:775-789 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2017. "Persistence and cycles in the us federal funds rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2014. "BRICS countries: real interest rates and long memory," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 409-419.

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