Out-of-sample forecasting performance of the QGARCH model
The population value of the R 2 is derived from the Mincer-Zarnowitz volatility forecast regression for a QGARCH(1,1). The study shows that the population R 2 exceeds that of the standard GARCH(1,1). This indicates that accounting for asymmetry in the conditional variance process can increase the predictive power of volatility forecasts. As with the standard GARCH(1,1) model, however, the R 2 is still bounded by the reciprocal of the innovation kurtosis. As a result, small values of the R 2 should be anticipated when using the QGARCH(1,1) in empirical work.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFL20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAFL20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
- David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2001. "Nonlinearities in the black market zloty-dollar exchange rate: some further evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 209-220.
- Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994.
"The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Weixian Wei, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility with non-linear GARCH models: a case for China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 163-166.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989.
"Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility,"
89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2003. "Asymmetric volatility dynamics in high frequency FTSE-100 stock index futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 599-607.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Nicholas Apergis & Sophia Eleptheriou, 2001. "Stock returns and volatility: Evidence from the Athens Stock market index," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 50-61, March.
- Nicole Davis & Ali Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700.
- David McMillan & Alan Speight & Owain Apgwilym, 2000. "Forecasting UK stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 435-448.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:1:y:2005:i:6:p:387-392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.