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An alternative method to test for contagion with an application to the Asian financial crisis

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  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J
  • R. Scott Hacker

Abstract

This paper investigates the size properties of a test for contagion based on an asymptotic t -distribution. The simulations show that this asymptotic test does not have correct size properties. An alternative test method based on case-resampling bootstrapping is introduced to improve on the correctness of inference. The simulations show that this new test has much better size properties. It also has quite high power properties and it is robust to ARCH effects. The method is applied to testing for contagion from Thailand to Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & R. Scott Hacker, 2005. "An alternative method to test for contagion with an application to the Asian financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(6), pages 343-347, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:1:y:2005:i:6:p:343-347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Melisso Boschi, 2005. "International financial contagion: evidence from the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 153-163.
    3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    4. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    7. Nobuyoshi Yamori, 1999. "Contagion effects of bank liquidation in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 703-705.
    8. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
    10. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2010. "Did the Austrian Financial Market Become more Integrated with the German Market after EU Accession? - Il mercato finanziario austriaco si è integrato maggiormente con quello tedesco dopo l’adesione al," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(3), pages 297-304.
    2. Harun UCAK & Ilhan OZTURK & Alper ASLAN, 2014. "An Examination of Fisher Effect for Selected New EU Member States," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 956-959.
    3. Rohin Anhal, 2013. "Causality between GDP, Energy and Coal Consumption in India, 1970-2011: A Non-parametric Bootstrap Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 434-446.
    4. David Matesanz & Guillermo Ortega, 2014. "Network analysis of exchange data: interdependence drives crisis contagion," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1835-1851, July.
    5. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Sarmiento-Sabogal, Julio, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Colombian Stock Market Reaction to the US Market: Evidence from a Casewise Bootstrap Approach - Un’analisi empirica della reazione del mercato azionario colombiano al," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 66(1), pages 57-67.
    6. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2010. "The Impact of the US Real Estate Market on Other Major Markets During Normal and Crisis Periods," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201003, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    7. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9580-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo, 2011. "How globally contagious was the recent US real estate market crisis? Evidence based on a new contagion test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2560-2565.
    9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2011. "Are Real Estate Markets Integrated with the World Market?," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201111, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    10. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Roca, Eduardo & Al-Shayeb, Abdulrahman, 2014. "How integrated are real estate markets with the world market? Evidence from case-wise bootstrap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 137-142.
    11. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2013. "Contagion across real estate and equity markets during European sovereign debt crisis," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 305-316, September.

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