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An alternative method to test for contagion with an application to the Asian financial crisis

  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J
  • R. Scott Hacker

This paper investigates the size properties of a test for contagion based on an asymptotic t -distribution. The simulations show that this asymptotic test does not have correct size properties. An alternative test method based on case-resampling bootstrapping is introduced to improve on the correctness of inference. The simulations show that this new test has much better size properties. It also has quite high power properties and it is robust to ARCH effects. The method is applied to testing for contagion from Thailand to Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 343-347

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:1:y:2005:i:6:p:343-347
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  1. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  2. Nobuyoshi Yamori, 1999. "Contagion effects of bank liquidation in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 703-705.
  3. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Melisso Boschi, 2005. "International financial contagion: evidence from the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 153-163.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
  9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546.
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