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REIT markets: periodically collapsing negative bubbles?

  • James E. Payne
  • George A. Waters

This study tests for the presence of negative bubbles in the REIT markets over the period 1972:01 to 2004:05 using the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model. There is evidence of asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium between REIT prices and dividends indicative of negative bubbles for mortgage and hybrid REITs.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 65-69

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:1:y:2005:i:2:p:65-69
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  1. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  4. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
  5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  6. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
  8. G. Capelle-Blancard & H. Raymond, 2004. "Empirical evidence on periodically collapsing stock price bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-69.
  9. L. Sarno & M. P. Taylor, 2003. "An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 635-643.
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