Lessons Learned From Tax Versus Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation In The European Transition Economies
European Union member countries are currently exposed to negative implications of the economic and debt crisis. Questions associated with disputable implications of fiscal incentives seem to be contrary to the crucial need of the effective fiscal consolidation that seems to be necessary to reduce excessive fiscal deficits and high sovereign debts. While challenges addressed to the fiscal policy and its anti-cyclical potential rose steadily but not desperately since the beginning of the economic crisis, the call for fiscal consolidation became urgent almost immediately and this need significantly strengthen after the debt crisis contagion flooded Europe. In the paper we provide an overview of main trends in public budgets and sovereign debts in ten European transition economies during last two decades. We identify episodes of successful and unsuccessful (cold showers versus gradual) fiscal (expenditure versus revenue based) consolidations by analyzing effects of improvements in cyclically adjusted primary balance on the sovereign debt ratio reduction. We also estimate VAR model to analyze effects of fiscal shocks (based on one standard deviation in total expenditure, direct and indirect taxes) to real output. It is expected that responses of real output to different types of (consolidating) fiscal shocks may vary and thus provide more precise ideas about a feasibility (i.e. side effects on the macroeconomic performance) of expenditure versus revenue based fiscal consolidation episodes. Economic effects of fiscal consolidating adjustments are evaluated for two periods (pre-crisis and extended) to reveal crisis effects on fiscal consolidation efforts.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009.
"What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Mountford and Uhlig JAE 2009 sign-constrained VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00121, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004.
"Fiscal shocks and their consequences,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
- Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009.
"Effects Of Fiscal Policy Shocks In The European Transition Economies,"
Journal of Applied Research in Finance Bi-Annually,
ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 141-157, December.
- Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 19481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
NBER Working Papers
7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 418, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
- Mihai ANTONESCU & Simona MANEA & Ligia ANTONESCU, 2008. "Fiscal Aspects Regarding Taxing The Incomes Of Nonï¿½Residents In Romania," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srs:jaes12:8:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:73-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (MÄƒdÄƒlina Constantinescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.