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Tunisian constituent assembly elections: how does spatial proximity matter?

Listed author(s):
  • Mohamed Amara


    (High Institute of Management of Sousse)

  • AbdelRahmen El Lahga


    (High Institute of Management of Sousse
    High Institute of Management of Tunis)

Abstract This paper presents an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Spatial Econometric modeling of the 2011 National Constituent Assembly elections (NCA) in Tunisia. By using electoral data at delegation level of the six main political parties (Ennahda, Congress of the Republic, Ettakatol, the Democratic Progressive Party, the Petition and the Democratie Modernist Pole), we show that geographical proximity matters in Tunisia’s voting behavior. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin model, including spatially weighted independent variables, as the best model to explain the voting phenomenon. Employing LeSage and Pace’s approach, we find that the largest direct and indirect effects are associated with age cohort and level of educational attainment. Voters who live in poorer neighborhoods are more likely to support the Petition list. Our results also show that younger voters are more likely to vote Ennahda, while older voters with high educational attainment are more likely to support Ettakatol and the Democratie Modernist Pole parties. Men are more likely to support Congress of the Republic than women voters.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Quality & Quantity.

Volume (Year): 50 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 65-88

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Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:50:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-014-0137-1
DOI: 10.1007/s11135-014-0137-1
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  1. Panu Pelkonen, 2012. "Length of compulsory education and voter turnout—evidence from a staged reform," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 51-75, January.
  2. Milligan, Kevin & Moretti, Enrico & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2004. "Does education improve citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1667-1695, August.
  3. Andrew Leigh, 2005. "Economic Voting And Electoral Behavior: How Do Individual, Local, And National Factors Affect The Partisan Choice?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 265-296, July.
  4. Luc Anselin & Sanjeev Sridharan & Susan Gholston, 2007. "Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to Leverage Social Indicator Databases: The Discovery of Interesting Patterns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 82(2), pages 287-309, June.
  5. Johnston, Ron & Propper, Carol & Burgess, Simon & Sarker, Rebecca & Bolster, Anne & Jones, Kelvyn, 2005. "Spatial Scale and the Neighbourhood Effect: Multinomial Models of Voting at Two Recent British General Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 487-514, July.
  6. Vilalta y Perdomo, Carlos, 2004. "The local context and the spatial diffusion of multiparty competition in urban Mexico (1994-2000)," EGAP Working Papers 2004-03, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.
  7. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
  8. David Cutts & Don Webber, 2010. "Voting Patterns, Party Spending and Relative Location in England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 735-760.
  9. repec:cup:apsrev:v:81:y:1987:i:02:p:405-423_19 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Habib Ayeb, 2011. "Social and political geography of the Tunisian revolution: the alfa grass revolution," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(129), pages 467-479, September.
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