IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/cliomt/v10y2016i3d10.1007_s11698-015-0134-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926–2012

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Gerlach

    () (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Reamonn Lydon

    () (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Rebecca Stuart

    () (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Abstract Since the 1970s, the overarching view in the literature has been that a Phillips curve relationship did not exist in Ireland prior to the 1979 exchange rate break with Sterling. It was argued that, as a small open economy, prices were determined externally. To test this relationship, we study the determination of inflation between 1926 and 2012, a longer sample period than any previously used. We find that the difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation both in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning the periods before and after the Sterling parity link.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach & Reamonn Lydon & Rebecca Stuart, 2016. "Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926–2012," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 10(3), pages 345-364, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:10:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11698-015-0134-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-015-0134-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11698-015-0134-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    3. Neary, J Peter & O'Gráda, Cormac, 1986. "Protection, Economic War and Structural Change: The 1930s in Ireland," CEPR Discussion Papers 117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Honohan, Patrick, 1984. "The Evolution of the Rate of Unemployment in Ireland 1962-1983," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 1984(2-May).
    5. Honohan, Patrick, 1992. "The Link between Irish and UK Unemployment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 1992(1-Spring).
    6. Kelly, John, 2003. "The Irish Pound: From Origins to EMU," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-115, March.
    7. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    8. Bermingham, Colin & Coates, Dermot & Larkin, John & O'Brien, Derry & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2012. "Explaining Irish Inflation during the Financial Crisis," Economic Letters 13/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Bentolila, Samuel & Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2008. "Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1398-1423, November.
    10. Nelson, Edward, 2008. "Ireland and Switzerland: The jagged edges of the Great Inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 700-732, May.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Money, Interest Rates and Prices in Ireland, 1933-2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 9961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Browne, F. X., 1984. "The international transmission of inflation to a small open economy under fixed exchange rates and highly interest-sensitive capital flows : An Empirical Analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 187-212, July.
    13. Michael J. Artis & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "The Stabilizing Effect of the ERM on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Some Nonparametric Tests," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 123-148, March.
    14. Patrick Honohan & Gavin Murphy, 2010. "Breaking The Sterling Link: Ireland’S Decision To Enter The Ems," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp317, IIIS.
    15. Bacon, Peter & Durkan, Joe & O'Leary, Jim, 1982. "The Irish Economy: Policy and Performance 1972-1981The Irish Economy: Policy and Performance 1972-1981," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BMI30.
    16. Haldane, Andrew & Quah, Danny, 1999. "UK Phillips curves and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 259-278, October.
    17. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1985. "The early history of the Phillips curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 17-24.
    18. Callan, Tim & FitzGerald, John, 1989. "Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers ME179, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Geary, Patrick T. & McCarthy, Colm, 1976. "Wage and price determination in a labour-exporting economy : The case of Ireland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 219-233, October.
    20. Bean, C R & Layard, P R G & Nickell, S J, 1986. "The Rise in Unemployment: A Multi-country Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 1-22, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ireland; Historical statistics; Inflation; Unemployment; Import prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:10:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11698-015-0134-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.