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Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning

  • Eric Gaus

    ()

    (?Ursinus College, 601 E Main Street, Collegeville, PA 19426-1000, USA;)

Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model (Duffy and Xiao 2007; Evans and Honkapohja 2009). This article builds on this research by examining an economy subject to a variety of monetary policy rules under an endogenous learning algorithm proposed by Marcet and Nicolini (2003). The results indicate that operational versions of optimal discretionary rules are not robustly stable, as in Evans and Honkapohja (2009). In addition, commitment rules are not robust to minor changes in expectational structure and parameter values.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-2012.071
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Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 80 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 439-453

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:80:2:y:2013:p:439-453
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/

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  1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  4. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
  5. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2005. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Working Papers 93, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-18, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Mar 2004.
  8. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  10. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  11. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2006. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents are Learning," Working Papers 284, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2006.
  12. Jensen, Christian & McCallum, Bennett T., 2002. "The non-optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 163-168, October.
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