IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

EsTrade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    ()

    (School of Management and Languages, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK;)

  • Omar S. Dahi

    ()

    (School of Critical Social Inquiry, Hampshire College, Amherst, MA 01002, USA; E-mail: odahi@hampshire.edu)

  • Firat Demir

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma, 436 Cate Center I, 308 Cate Center Drive, Norman, OK 73019, USA; Tel: +1-405-325-5844; Fax: +1-405-325-5842; corresponding author)

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south-north or south-south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south-south or south-north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-2011.174
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 79 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 905-927

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:79:4:y:2013:p:905-927
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "What You Export Matters," NBER Working Papers 11905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
  7. Przemyslaw Kowalski & Ben Shepherd, 2006. "South-South Trade In Goods," OECD Trade Policy Papers 40, OECD Publishing.
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
  10. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
  11. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996. "Financial Dependence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  13. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  14. Beck, Thorsten, 2001. "Financial development and international trade : is there a link?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2608, The World Bank.
  15. Imbs, Jean & Wacziarg, Romain, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  17. Robert A. Mundell, 2002. "National economic policies, currency areas and Arab monetary integration," Discussion Papers 0102-31, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  18. Braun, Matias & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Trade liberalization, capital account liberalization and the real effects of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 730-761, September.
  19. Demir, FIrat & Dahi, Omar S., 2011. "Asymmetric effects of financial development on South-South and South-North trade: Panel data evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 139-149, January.
  20. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November.
  22. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  23. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
  24. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6fw631qn, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  25. Mustafa Caglayan & Jing Di, 2010. "Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 313-335, October.
  26. Lewis, W Arthur, 1980. "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 555-64, September.
  27. Aysun, Uluc & Honig, Adam, 2011. "Bankruptcy costs, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to sudden stops," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 201-211, July.
  28. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
  29. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
  30. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
  31. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
  32. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  33. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
  34. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
  35. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1td5x343, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  36. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2005. "Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-144, January.
  37. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Trade Flows to Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 641, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2008.
  38. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
  39. Amsden, Alice H, 1980. "The Industry Characteristics of Intra-Third World Trade in Manufactures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19, October.
  40. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  41. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
  42. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  43. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
  44. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  45. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
  46. Kenneth Kletzer and Pranab Bardhan., 1986. "Credit Markets and Patterns of International Trade," Economics Working Papers 8612, University of California at Berkeley.
  47. Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
  48. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1998. "Law, Finance, and Firm Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2107-2137, December.
  49. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics.
  50. Viaene, J-M. & De Vries, C.G., 1989. "International Trade And Exchange Rate Volatility," Papers 8905, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
  51. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:79:4:y:2013:p:905-927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Razzolini)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.