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Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    () (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg, D-35032 Marburg, Germany)

  • Ali M. Kutan

    () (†Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University–Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    () (‡Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-University Marburg, D-35032 Marburg, Germany)

Abstract

Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official target rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the recent financial crisis, central bank communication played an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to communications than do non-American markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1041-1056, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:78:3:y:2012:p:1041-1056
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-78.3.1041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
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    3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Does the currency board matter? US news and Argentine financial market reaction," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4034-4040, October.
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    8. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
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    10. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 19-44, February.
    11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
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    14. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2008. "Financial Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Communications: Does the Crisis Make a Difference?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200808, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lähner, Tom, 2015. "Inconsistent voting behavior in the FOMC," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-546, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Ingo Fender & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Daily CDS pricing in emerging markets before and during the global financial crisis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201139, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2017. "Federal reserve's policy, global equity markets, and the local monetary policy stance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 317-327.
    5. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    6. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Stefan Eichler & Tom Lähner, 2014. "Forecast dispersion, dissenting votes, and monetary policy preferences of FOMC members: the role of individual career characteristics and political aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 429-453, September.
    8. Lucian Liviu Albu & Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2016. "Impact Of FOMC Official Speeches on the Intraday Dynamics of CDS Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-12, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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