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Does the Beige Book Move Financial Markets?

  • Madeline Zavodny

    ()

    (Agnes Scott College)

  • Donna K. Ginther

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Kansas)

About two weeks prior to each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. By creating a quantitative index of these qualitative reports, we examine whether the content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly intermediate- and long-term rates, but not after controlling for several other macroeconomic indicators. The results are consistent with markets viewing the report as a summary indicator of economic growth but not of monetary policy moves in the near term.

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Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 72 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 138–151

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:72:1:y:2005:p:138-151
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/

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  1. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002. "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 114-36, February.
  9. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
  10. Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10.
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  13. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
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  16. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
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