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Mean Reversion of Real Exchange Rates in High-Inflation Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Michael F. Bleaney
  • Stephen J. Leybourne
  • Paul Mizen

Abstract

We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using data from five countries, four of which have experienced episodes of high inflation. Using monthly data for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Israel, we find that a stochastic unit root model is typically appropriate (Brazil is the exception). Kalman filter estimates of the stochastic unit roots show sharp deviations from unity associated with high inflation episodes. This suggests that stochastic unit root models are a more appropriate way to model mean reversion in real exchange rates for high inflation countries than models with fixed rates of mean reversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Bleaney & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Mizen, 1999. "Mean Reversion of Real Exchange Rates in High-Inflation Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 839-854, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:65:4:y:1999:p:839-854
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Khuram Shafi & Liu Hua & Amna Nazeer & Zahra Idrees, 2015. "Behavior of Exchange Rate Volatility: Once Again in Action," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 270-276, January.
    2. Daisuke Nagakura, 2009. "Inconsistency of a Unit Root Test against Stochastic Unit Root Processes," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    4. Yoon, Gawon, 2004. "On the existence of expected utility with CRRA under STUR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 219-224, May.
    5. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Persistence and Country Characteristics," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 31, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    6. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Real exchange rate, stationarity, and economic fundamentals," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, October.
    7. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering With Applications In Finance:," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    8. Rey, Serge & Varachaud, Pascal, 2000. "Le comportement des taux de change réels européens de la fin Bretton Woods à l’adoption de l’euro
      [The behavior of European real exchange rates from the Bretton Woods system end to the adoption of
      ," MPRA Paper 49502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Daisuke Nagakura, 2007. "Testing for Coefficient Stability of AR(1) Model When the Null is an Integrated or a Stationary Process," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    11. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
    12. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, March.
    13. Nagakura, Daisuke, 2009. "Asymptotic theory for explosive random coefficient autoregressive models and inconsistency of a unit root test against a stochastic unit root process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(24), pages 2476-2483, December.

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