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Assessing Relative Performance of Econometric Models in Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Using Spatial Autoregression


  • Seo, S. Niggol

    (U Sydney)


Although econometric models have been widely used to measure the impact of climate change on agriculture, there exist differences among the modelers on which specification should be preferred. To help explain the discrepancies, this paper assesses four different econometric models, i.e., OLS, panel, and two spatial models using a South American agricultural household data. The relationship among the econometric specifications is examined in terms of the freedom given to a spatial autoregressive parameter. In spatial models, the spatial parameter is free within the model, but is fixed a priori in the aspatial models. Empirical results show a high correlation of the land values across South America. Spatial models result in somewhat lower climate change impact estimates than those from the aspatial models.

Suggested Citation

  • Seo, S. Niggol, 2008. "Assessing Relative Performance of Econometric Models in Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Using Spatial Autoregression," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 38(2), pages 195-209.
  • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:38:y:2008:i:2:p:195-209

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dubin, Robin A, 1988. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Presence of Spatially Autocorrelated Error Terms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 466-474, August.
    2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    4. Michelle J. Reinsborough, 2003. "A Ricardian model of climate change in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 21-40, February.
    5. Olivier DeschĂȘnes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    6. Martin Benirschka & James K. Binkley, 1994. "Land Price Volatility in a Geographically Dispersed Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 185-195.
    7. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
    8. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    9. Jorge Chica Olmo, 1995. "Spatial Estimation of Housing Prices and Locational Rents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 32(8), pages 1331-1344, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Salvo, Maria & Raffaelli, Roberta & Moser, Riccarda, 2013. "The impact of climate change on permanent crops in an Alpine region: A Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 23-32.

    More about this item


    Agriculture; Climate; Econometrics; OLS; Spatial; Spatial Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)


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