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On the Possibilities to forecast the Current Crisis and its Second Wave (In Memory of E. Gaidar)

Author

Listed:
  • Akaev, Askar

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Sadovnichiy, Viktor

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Korotaev, Andrei

    (Institute of Africa of Russian Academy of Scienes)

Abstract

It is shown that the 2008 world economic crisis could have been forecasted a year and a half in advance through the approximation of the oil price dynamics by a power-law function with a finite singularity. Through the approximation of the gold price dynamics by a power-law function with a finite singularity and the calculation with the least-squares’ method of the parameter characterizing critical time a forecast of the second wave of the crisis is proposed, which suggests that it may start in July — August, 2011. In order to mitigate the consequences of the second recession it appears necessary to stop currency wars through transition to the basket of internationally recognized currencies, to limit the dollar emission under the international control and/or to introduce certain elements of the gold monetary standard.

Suggested Citation

  • Akaev, Askar & Sadovnichiy, Viktor & Korotaev, Andrei, 2010. "On the Possibilities to forecast the Current Crisis and its Second Wave (In Memory of E. Gaidar)," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 39-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:1064
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