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Effects of the Great Recession on state output in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Mejia Reyes

    () (Universidad Autonoma del Estado de Mexico.)

  • Miguel Angel Diaz Carreño

Abstract

Este articulo busca explicar la caida acumulada de la produccion total y sectorial (industrial y de servicios) de los estados de Mexico durante la Gran Recesion mediante la estimacion de modelos de regresion espacial y de corte transversal. Los resultados sugieren, primero, que existe auto correlacion espacial negativa solo en el caso de la produccion total, lo que no sustenta la hipotesis de transmision interestatal de la recesion. Segundo, la exposicion estructural externa contribuye a explicar la caida en la produccion industrial y de servicios. Tercero, la especializacion en la produccion de bienes comerciables (durables) contribuye a explicar las caidas en todos los casos. Cuarto, la baja en la demanda externa provocada por la Gran Recesion explica en parte las reducciones en la produccion industrial y total. Quinto, la politica fiscal ha tenido efectos limitados y diferenciados, mostrando un caracter pro ciclico en el caso federal y uno opuesto en el estatal.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Mejia Reyes & Miguel Angel Diaz Carreño, 2015. "Effects of the Great Recession on state output in Mexico," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 12(2), pages 25-45, Julio-Dic.
  • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:12:y:2015:i:2p:25-45
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    File URL: http://www.revistascientificas.udg.mx/index.php/EQ/article/view/4859/4539
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferhan Salman & Mali Chivakul & Ricardo Llaudes, 2010. "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/237, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Ros, Jaime, 2009. "Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371161.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    6. Jian Wang, 2010. "Durable goods and the collapse of global trade," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 5(feb).
    7. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    8. Chiquiar, Daniel & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2005. "Trade and business-cycle synchronization: evidence from Mexican and U.S. manufacturing industries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-216, August.
    9. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos economicos regionales; Gran Recesion; Regresion espacial.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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