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Fiscal consolidation in a small euro area economy

Author

Listed:
  • Vanda Almeida
  • Gabriela Lopes de Castro
  • Ricardo Mourinho Félix
  • José R. Maria

Abstract

This article focuses on the costs and benefits of a fiscal consolidation in a small euro area economy. The macroeconomic impacts and the welfare analysis are conducted in a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model with non-Ricardian agents. We define a benchmark fiscal consolidation strategy based on a permanent reduction in Government expenditure. We find that, over the long run, fiscal consolidation leads to a considerable increase in the level of output and consumption, and is welfare improving. In addition, the gains are boosted if the fiscal strategy also involves a tax reform that shifts the tax burden away from labour income towards the final goods consumption. However, important short-run costs arise, notably output, consumption and welfare losses. Finally, we assess the effect of alternative fiscal consolidation paths in terms of the degree of front loading, the speed of its completion and the interaction with risk premium.
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Suggested Citation

  • Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation in a small euro area economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:bdpart:b201106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Warmedinger & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, pages 139-168.
    2. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Monetary-Policy Tradeoff in Overlapping Generations DSGE Models," DEM Working Papers Series 028, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:55-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 55-106.
    5. Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium," Kiel Working Papers 1963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Gabriela Castro & Ricardo M. Felix & Paulo Julio & Jose R. Maria, 2014. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2014_07, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    7. repec:ecb:ecbops:2011162 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Maria Ferrara & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidations: Can We Reap the Gain and Escape the Pain?," Working Papers 283, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2014.
    9. Ronald B. Davies & Neill Killeen, 2015. "Location Decisions of Non-Bank Financial Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-Level Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 201526, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    10. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:4:a:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 185-198.
    12. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 276-294.
    13. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1173-1189.
    14. Ansgar Rannenberg & Christian Schoder & Jan Strásky, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area?s fiscal consolidation 2011-2013," IMK Working Paper 156-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Ferrara, Maria & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Equitable fiscal consolidations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 207-223.
    16. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Policy Independence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 259-306, December.
    17. Paulo Júlio & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & José R. Maria, 2015. "Financial Fragmentation Shocks," Working Papers w201508, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Juha Kilponen, Massimiliano Pisani, Sebastian Schmidt, Vesna Corbo, Tibor Hledik, Josef Hollmayr, Samuel Hurtado, Paulo Júlio, Dmitry Kulikov, Matthieu Lemoine, Matija Lozej, Henrik Lundvall, José R. , 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Research 278, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2012. "Testing for Nonlinear Adjustment in the Portuguese Target Zone: Is there a Honeymoon Effect?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    20. repec:cup:macdyn:v:21:y:2017:i:07:p:1673-1705_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Benjamin Carton & Thibault Guyon, 2012. "Désendettement en union monétaire : un modèle structurel," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 131-153.
    22. Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Paulo Júlio & José R. Maria, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," Working Papers w201311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    23. Gabriela Castro & Ricardo M. Felix & Paulo Julio & Jose R. Maria, 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2015_06, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    24. João Amador & Rita Cappariello & Robert Stehrer, 2015. "Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, pages 99-120.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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