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Using the first principal component as a core inflation indicator


  • Pedro Duarte Neves
  • Carlos Robalo Marques
  • Afonso Gonçalves da Silva


This paper investigates the consequences of non-stationarity for the principal components analysis and suggests a data transformation that allows obtaining smoother series for the first principal component to be used as a core inflation indicator. The paper also introduces a theoretical model, which allows interpreting core inflation as a common stochastic trend to the year-on-year rates of change of the price indices of the basic CPI items. Finally, it is shown that the first principal component computed in real time meets the evaluation criteria introduced in Marques et al. (2000).
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Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Duarte Neves & Carlos Robalo Marques & Afonso Gonçalves da Silva, 2001. "Using the first principal component as a core inflation indicator," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:bdpart:b200101

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giacomi De Giorgi, 2005. "Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK," IFS Working Papers W05/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Simon Chan, 2010. "Measures of trend inflation in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 177-200 Bank for International Settlements.

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    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


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