IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenarios of future built environment for coastal risk assessment of climate change using a GIS-based multicriteria analysis


  • Mustafa Mokrech
  • Robert J Nicholls
  • Richard J Dawson


Assessments of changing risks in the future often focus on climate change alone, and ignore other relevant drivers such as socioeconomic changes. If other relevant drivers are considered at all, expert judgment is often used to create scenarios and the underlying logic is not always apparent. In this paper we describe an algorithm-based method for developing quantitative future scenarios of the built environment in East Anglia, England with a focus on a coastal management unit, designated sub-cell 3b. The four UK Foresight socioeconomic storylines were inputs to the study: World Markets, Local Stewardship, Global Sustainability, and National Enterprise. On the basis of estimated regional demand, the distributions of new residential and nonresidential properties were calculated under all scenarios using a GIS-based multicriteria analysis. The buildings are distributed across a large swath of East Anglia using four attraction factors with different weightings to reflect the storylines. The factors are the existing settlements, transport networks, coastline, and floodplain. The results show increases in the number of residential and nonresidential properties within the coastal flood plain of sub-cell 3b under all socioeconomic scenarios, especially under World Markets and National Enterprise. These increases may lead to a significant increase in flood risk and to a lesser extent in the erosion risk in the study site. More importantly, the multicriteria method presented here demonstrates an algorithm-based approach that provides feasible and flexible tools for the development of socioeconomic scenarios in the context of impact and risk assessment. Hence, the scenario assumptions are explicit, reproducible and easily adjustable, as required. Keywords: built environment, socioeconomic scenarios, multicriteria analysis, flood risk, climate change, GIS

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Mokrech & Robert J Nicholls & Richard J Dawson, 2012. "Scenarios of future built environment for coastal risk assessment of climate change using a GIS-based multicriteria analysis," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 39(1), pages 120-136, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:pio:envirb:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:120-136

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Fulltext access restricted to subscribers, see for details

    File URL:
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Fulltext access restricted to subscribers, see for details

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Viguié, Vincent & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Rozenberg, Julie, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 305-324.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pio:envirb:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:120-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Neil Hammond). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.