IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Some evidence from Japan on the efficiency of land markets

Listed author(s):
  • D R Vining
  • H Hiraguchi
Registered author(s):

    When an investor enters the real-estate market, can he detect a profitable parcel of land simply by observing how its price (or, more realistically, prices of like parcels in its general vicinity) has behaved in the immediate past? For example, if we observe land prices in a certain of a city or even of a country to be rising at a rapid rate, is it reasonable to expect prices there to continue to rise at this rapid rate? If so, the market is said to be 'inefficient'. Current prices in that market do not fully capitalize expected future price changes. This paper asks if the Tokyo land market is inefficient and concludes that it is. If the government data on this market can be trusted, there are wide divergences in mean rates of appreciation across parcels that cannot be explained by differences in risk and that are not being closed through arbitrage. It appears that an investor in land can make an above average return on his funds by discovering where land prices have been rising at an above average rate and by investing in land in this area. If sustained by similar analyses of other land markets, this finding will give quantitative content to land economists' intuition that land markets are different from other speculative markets (for example, the stock and commodities markets), which are well known to be highly efficient.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Fulltext access restricted to subscribers, see for details

    File URL:
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Fulltext access restricted to subscribers, see for details

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Pion Ltd, London in its journal Environment and Planning A.

    Volume (Year): 9 (1977)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 975-984

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:9:y:1977:i:9:p:975-984
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:9:y:1977:i:9:p:975-984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Neil Hammond)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.